Best Time to Buy a Grill, AC, or Patio Furniture: End-of-Season Math

Seasonal categories — grills, air conditioners, patio furniture, snow blowers, lawn mowers, pool equipment — follow exactly one rule: buy at the end of the season for use the next year.

Retailers price seasonal inventory based on demand, and demand for grills in October is roughly zero. So retailers slash prices to clear inventory ahead of the winter holiday inventory swap. The discount can be 50–75% off — but the trade-off is real, and the timing is specific.

Here’s the calendar by category.

Grills and outdoor cooking

Best window: late August through September. Inventory clearance starts as retailers shift attention to fall and winter. Charcoal, gas, pellet, and hybrid grills all see 25–50% discounts.

Deepest window: October. End-of-season fire sale at Home Depot, Lowe’s, Ace, and Costco. Discounts hit 50%+, but selection is heavily reduced.

Worst windows: March–May (peak demand, full retail) and the week before Father’s Day (artificially inflated MSRPs for the “sale”).

Pellet smokers (Traeger, Pit Boss): Same calendar, but with one twist — Traeger runs aggressive sales around the Super Bowl and again on Black Friday. Plan around those if you want a Traeger specifically.

The downside: if you wait until October, the model you want may not be available, and outdoor cooking accessories (covers, baskets, tongs) are also harder to find.

Air conditioners (window and portable)

Best window: end of August through September. Demand crashes, inventory needs to clear before winter.

Deepest window: October. Final clearance. 60% off is realistic for window units; portable ACs see 40–50%.

Worst windows: the first heat wave (typically June, sometimes May). Prices spike, and shipping delays kick in.

Central AC systems are a different game — they follow the major appliance calendar, with HVAC contractors offering deeper installation discounts in winter and early spring (their slow season). If you need a full system, schedule for January–March, not July.

Smart tactic: if your window AC is on its last summer, replace it in August or September for next year. You’re not unplugging the old one until next May anyway.

Patio furniture

Best window: late August through September. Clearance begins.

Deepest window: October–November. 60–75% off is normal. Storage problem is real — you need a garage, shed, or cover.

Worst window: February–April. Spring launch pricing.

Where to look: Wayfair, Costco, Sam’s Club, Lowe’s, Home Depot, World Market. Costco’s patio furniture clearance is particularly aggressive in October because of their no-stockroom logistics.

Cushions and umbrellas clear at similar discounts to the furniture itself. If you have furniture but need new cushions, late summer is when to act.

Snow blowers and snow gear

This category inverts the calendar:

Best window: April through May. Hardware stores and outdoor retailers clear winter inventory.

Deepest window: late spring. 30–50% off snow blowers, shovels, ice melt, snow tires.

Worst window: December–January, when you actually need them.

If you live in a snow region and your snow blower is dying, buy a new one in April. Store it for seven months. Save $200–500.

Lawn mowers

Counterintuitive but true:

Best window: end of summer (August–September). Demand drops, inventory clears.

Deepest window: October–November. Most retailers clear out before snow blower season takes the floor space.

Worst window: March–May. Spring season, peak markup.

Pool equipment

Best window: end of September. Pool season ends, retailers clear chlorine, robotic pool cleaners, replacement parts, covers.

Deepest window: October. 40–60% off pool maintenance gear.

Worst window: May–June, when everyone is opening their pool.

Holiday decor

Best window: December 26th onward. Christmas decor crashes to 50–75% off the day after Christmas. Halloween decor on November 1st. Easter the Monday after.

The trick: Costco, Target, and HomeGoods clearance is fastest. Walmart and Big Lots are slower but deeper.

Tactics that make end-of-season work

Buy on day-of clearance markdowns, not when “the sale starts.” Stores often pre-mark items at the first discount tier, then aggressively cut further. The deepest markdown is usually 2–3 weeks into the clearance period — long enough that most items are still there, late enough that the retailer is desperate.

Use price-tracking apps even for seasonal items. Camelcamelcamel works for Amazon. For physical stores, the Honey extension and Capital One Shopping track historical prices for many SKUs.

Have storage planned before you buy. A grill in October is only a deal if you have somewhere to put it for six months. Cover, garage space, or willingness to store outdoors with a tarp — figure this out first.

Cosmetic-defect outlets are real value. Many manufacturers (Weber, Traeger, even some patio furniture brands) sell direct factory seconds at 30–40% off. Same warranty, same product, scratch or dent.

The rule

Seasonal goods at retail in-season is the most expensive way to shop. Buy a grill in October, an AC in September, snow gear in April, holiday decor on December 26th. The patience is six to nine months. The savings are 30–70%.

That’s the math seasonal categories run on. The retailer knows it. Now you do too.